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Why do cases of COVID-19 continue to spread when a majority of people are in lockdown?

First, SARS-COV-2 is most unusual in that is has an incubation period of up to 12 days, compared to 5 for most other coronaviruses and influenza viruses. So even if everyone in an area enters a perfect quarantine, it would take 2 weeks to show up clearly in the infection curve.

Second, COVID-19 is disproportionately fatal the older a patient is, so many young people (all over the world) have ignored early isolation warnings, believing themselves invulnerable—and unaware that even people in their 20s and 30s can end up needing mechanical ventilation to survive with lifetime damage to their lungs.

Third, COVID-19 is also unusual among high-mortality diseases in that it seems to seriously affect a comparatively small fraction of the population, leaving lots of asymptomatic carriers to slip through traditional epidemiological surveillance measures that rely on sick people reporting to doctors with identifiable symptoms.

All this means that all over the world, officials have instituted isolation and lock-down orders later than they should have, and they have been less widely enforced and respected than they needed to be.

But once in place, lock-downs have indeed curbed infection.



Is it true that the more exposure you have to the virus COVID-19, the sicker you’ll get?

Yes, It is called viral load.

Explanation from a hospital doctor:

“If I sit with one person and catch this virus, I get a small viral load. My immune system will start to fight it and by the time the virus starts replicating, I’m ready to kill it.

No medicines will help this process meaningfully hence there is no “cure” for this virus. All we can do is support you with a ventilator and hope your immune system can catch up fast enough.

If I sit in the same room with six people, all shedding I get six times the initial dose. The rise in viral load is faster than my immune system can cope with and it is overrun. I then become critically ill and need me (or someone of my specialty) to fix it instead of just being at home and being ok in the end.


If you are a large family group, remember that by being ill and in the same room, you will make each other ill or “more ill”. If you get sick, isolate just yourself into one room and stay there. Don’t all sit in one room coughing. You will increase the viral load for all of you, reducing your survival rate.

A family of six people may produce double the droplets of a family of three in the same space. Maths is important.

If one of you is symptomatic, assume you are all shedding and make sure you keep some space.

Parents are getting it from their kids because no one is going to stop comforting their child (nor should they) so the parent gets a big hit as well as the child. I don’t think that can be helped.


It could save your life or your child’s.”


Source: A consultant with Cov & Warwickshire Hospitals and also a trained trauma doctor with the Air Ambulance service



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